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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MONETARY POLICY STRATEGIES FOR LATIN AMERICA Frederic S. Mishkin Miguel A. Savastano Working Paper 7617 http://www.nber.org/papers/w7617 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 March 2000 Prepared for the Interamerican Seminar on Economics (IASE), Buenos Aires, December 2-4, 1999. The views expressed in this paper are exclusively those of the authors and not those of Columbia University, the National Bureau of Economic Research or the International Monetary Fund. We thank the participants at the Macro Lunch at Columbia University, the participants at IASE, our discussant, Federico Sturzenegger, and, in particular, Esteban Jadresic, Fernando Losada and Lars Svennson for helpful comments. Iván Guerra provided competent research assistance. © 2000 by Frederic S. Mishkin and Miguel A. Savastano. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America Frederic S. Mishkin and Miguel A. Savastano NBER Working Paper No. 7617 March 2000 JEL No. E5, F33, O54 ABSTRACT The paper examines possible monetary policy strategies for Latin America that may help lock-in the gains in the fight against inflation attained by the region during the 1990s. We start by calling for a refocus of the debate about the conduct of monetary policy away from thinking that it is about whether the nominal exchange rate should be fixed or flexible. Instead we argue that the focus should be on whether the monetary policy regime appropriately constrains discretion in monetary policymaking. This focus suggest that there are three basic frameworks that deserve serious discussion as possible, long-run strategies for monetary policy in Latin America: a hard exchange-rate peg, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. We look at the advantages and disadvantages of each of these strategies and then examine the recent track record of monetary policy in some Latin American countries for clues as to which of the three strategies might be best suited to economies in the region. Frederic S. Mishkin Graduate School of Business Uris Hall 619 Columbia University New York, NY 10027 and NBER fsm3@columbia.edu Miguel A. Savastano Research Department International Monetary Fund 700 19th Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20431 msavastano@imf.org